China Economy 2025. Under the baseline, we expect china's gdp growth to slow to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with the assumption that the us hikes tariffs on china’s exports starting in september 2025 and china would increase policy support in response. China's economy faces severe challenges in 2025, but this downward trend is not inevitable.
Much like in the u.s. Overall, we project china’s gdp growth rate to slow down further to 4.5 percent in 2025, with domestic demand playing a critical role in offsetting the slowdown in exports.
